This just in: Malcolm Turnbull has resigned cabinet and is set to challenge the leadership of the Liberal Party.
It’s anyone’s guess how this will play out, but here are some insights from a negotiator’s perspective.
Malcolm Turnbull has suggested that the Liberal party has better prospects for both the upcoming Canning by-election and the next federal election if he is leader. He has also said that Australia needs stronger economic leadership. Regardless of the outcome of the leadership spill, whoever is Prime Minister of Australia tomorrow morning will be in a difficult position moving forward. It is possible that the short-sighted objectives of election victories will interfere with important long term goals, such as the stability of the Australian economy; regardless, Malcolm Turnbull has certainly challenged the status quo.
Sky news is also reporting that, “Nationals deputy leader Barnaby Joyce has warned Liberal MPs the coalition agreement will need to be renegotiated if Malcolm Turnbull wins a challenge against Tony Abbott.” This means that even if Mr Turnbull is successful, he may have a difficult negotiation right out of the gate just to stay in government. He may have factored this into his decision, or he may have taken the stability of the coalition for granted. There’s a lesson to be learnt about testing your assumptions and making sure that you are prepared for inevitable curve balls, but we’ll just have to watch what happens next.
Watch this space, and share your comments below – what do you think of all this?